The global security landscape in 2023 was characterized by the tumult as the world continued to witness geopolitical shifts while contending with internal developments – often resulting in an interwoven and complex nexus. In line with predictions, the engines of the global economy fired back up in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, with expectations of a new, more resilient framework driving it. However, what the world witnessed were multi-faceted ramifications that presaged a spiraling global crisis fueled by the escalation and perpetuation of regional conflicts, primarily those between Russia and Ukraine, and in Israel and Palestine. These evolving geopolitical dynamics have also impeded efforts towards global cooperation at a time when it is a sine qua non. A resurgence of carbon emissions, an unrelenting cost-of living crisis, and food and fuel shortages have exacerbated social divisions and caused unrest. Economic deceleration impacted countries across the world, often influencing political and policy decisions, while having a bearing on bilateral relations as well. Curtailed government spending, EXIM controls, and rate revisions came to characterize economic decisions across the world, forcing businesses to calibrate decision making to navigate through new realities. India was not insulated from these global shocks, with its rising position in the global order placing it on a ringside seat to view, judge, and influence international developments. India’s G-20 Presidency in 2023 was testament to its pedigree as a growing international power, and the astute diplomacy it has practiced aided in weathering multiple difficult global challenges. Regardless, extant risks continued to pose governance challenges, while new risks developed in 2023 which will influence decision-making in the years to come. On the geopolitical front, deteriorating relations with Canada dominated headlines after the latter accused the Indian government of involvement in the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian citizen allegedly involved in Khalistani activities. Over the course of a highly charged October characterised by assertions and censures, both the countries engaged in tit-for-tat moves that involved suspension of visa services and recalling of diplomats. Since then, however, the rhetoric employed by both governments has softened, and refocused on narratives of cooperation and friendship. Relations with China could best be described as a hostile peace – an absence of physical conflagrations must not be equated with a thawing of hostilities. The continued construction of military and civilian infrastructure near the border in Arunachal Pradesh, the failure to gain meaningful ground on negotiations pertaining to de-deployment in the Ladakh theatre, and a virtual status quo in the overall situation meant that ties remain tense. Relations with Pakistan did not witness any significant deterioration or improvement, with internal political and economic instability taking the limelight. Continued cooperation in the domains of trade, commerce, and culture put India in a strong position in the Asia-Pacific region, which will be crucial in the year ahead as the situation in the South China Sea steadily heats up. India also kept up cooperation with its QUAD allies as both North Korea and China deployed an aggressive military posture in the larger region. “The past year was marked by increased global strife and geopolitical uncertainty. In a ‘World Adrift,’ the brutal Hamas Israel war put further strain on an already fragile and fragmented world order. As a large number of countries align themselves against the US-Israel nexus in this conflict, the US influence may wane, giving the China-Russia axis more traction. India, which sits at the cross roads of its strategic partnership with US on one hand, and Russia on the other, would need to take some difficult geo-strategic decisions within the framework of its geographical compulsions and overarching national interest. The early pointers to these shifting sands can be seen in the postponement of the QUAD summit planned for January 2024, and the apparent inability of President Biden to be the Chief Guest at India’s Republic Day Parade. The high of successfully hosting the G20 summit by India in 2023 was soured by the accusation by Canada that Indian government-sponsored agents had plotted and killed a Canadian citizen on their soil. Followed closely on the heels of this diplomatic discord was the more damaging disclosure by USA of a failed but allegedly Indian Government supported rogue action to kill an American citizen. Both were avowed separatists with a strong anti-India stance. While these incidents are still unravelling, they have the potential to hamper or at least dent Indo-US strategic relations and if proved, will damage India’s diplomatic stock in the eyes of the Western world. On the domestic front the upcoming general elections in the first half of 2024 are likely to be very polarizing and intense. Some degree of violence and conflict in some sensitive constituencies is possible. Elections are also planned for J&K, and would need deft handling as they would be under national and international spotlight. Elections in Pakistan and Bangladesh in 2024 would also have an impact in the region. On the internal security front, the uptick in terrorist attacks in J&K is likely to continue and may increase in the buildup to elections, further exacerbating India-Pakistan relations. Continued unrest in Manipur and Naxal-dominated areas will stretch the security apparatus in 2024. The overall economic outlook is robust, with satisfactory macro-economic indicators. However there is a continued need to tame inflation and create more job opportunities for the young and restive population of the country. Higher adoption of technology, continued digitalization and generative AI are all likely to give a major boost to the economy. The increasing pace of Apple products manufacturing in India, and possible entry of Foxconn, would also be a catalyst to the manufacturing sector. Overall the year 2024 is likely to be stable, but challenging both domestically and on the geopolitical front. Economic growth which is reasonably insulated, will continue to make India the best performing major economy in 2024. The outcome of the watershed general elections would define India’s future for rest of the current decade.” Lt Gen Sudhir Sharma, PVSM, AVSM, YSM, VSM, Chairman, MitKat 2024…
