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India Risk Review 2024

The global security landscape in 2023 was characterized by the tumult as the world continued to witness geopolitical shifts while contending with internal developments – often resulting in an interwoven and complex nexus. In line with predictions, the engines of the global economy fired back up in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, with expectations of a new, more resilient framework driving it. However, what the world witnessed were multi-faceted ramifications that presaged a spiraling global crisis fueled by the escalation and perpetuation of regional conflicts, primarily those between Russia and Ukraine, and in Israel and Palestine. These evolving geopolitical dynamics have also impeded efforts towards global cooperation at a time when it is a sine qua non. A resurgence of carbon emissions, an unrelenting cost-of living crisis, and food and fuel shortages have exacerbated social divisions and caused unrest. Economic deceleration impacted countries across the world, often influencing political and policy decisions, while having a bearing on bilateral relations as well. Curtailed government spending, EXIM controls, and rate revisions came to characterize economic decisions across the world, forcing businesses to calibrate decision making to navigate through new realities. India was not insulated from these global shocks, with its rising position in the global order placing it on a ringside seat to view, judge, and influence international developments. India’s G-20 Presidency in 2023 was testament to its pedigree as a growing international power, and the astute diplomacy it has practiced aided in weathering multiple difficult global challenges. Regardless, extant risks continued to pose governance challenges, while new risks developed in 2023 which will influence decision-making in the years to come. On the geopolitical front, deteriorating relations with Canada dominated headlines after the latter accused the Indian government of involvement in the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian citizen allegedly involved in Khalistani activities. Over the course of a highly charged October characterised by assertions and censures, both the countries engaged in tit-for-tat moves that involved suspension of visa services and recalling of diplomats. Since then, however, the rhetoric employed by both governments has softened, and refocused on narratives of cooperation and friendship. Relations with China could best be described as a hostile peace – an absence of physical conflagrations must not be equated with a thawing of hostilities. The continued construction of military and civilian infrastructure near the border in Arunachal Pradesh, the failure to gain meaningful ground on negotiations pertaining to de-deployment in the Ladakh theatre, and a virtual status quo in the overall situation meant that ties remain tense. Relations with Pakistan did not witness any significant deterioration or improvement, with internal political and economic instability taking the limelight. Continued cooperation in the domains of trade, commerce, and culture put India in a strong position in the Asia-Pacific region, which will be crucial in the year ahead as the situation in the South China Sea steadily heats up. India also kept up cooperation with its QUAD allies as both North Korea and China deployed an aggressive military posture in the larger region. “The past year was marked by increased global strife and geopolitical uncertainty. In a ‘World Adrift,’ the brutal Hamas Israel war put further strain on an already fragile and fragmented world order. As a large number of countries align themselves against the US-Israel nexus in this conflict, the US influence may wane, giving the China-Russia axis more traction. India, which sits at the cross roads of its strategic partnership with US on one hand, and Russia on the other, would need to take some difficult geo-strategic decisions within the framework of its geographical compulsions and overarching national interest. The early pointers to these shifting sands can be seen in the postponement of the QUAD summit planned for January 2024, and the apparent inability of President Biden to be the Chief Guest at India’s Republic Day Parade. The high of successfully hosting the G20 summit by India in 2023 was soured by the accusation by Canada that Indian government-sponsored agents had plotted and killed a Canadian citizen on their soil. Followed closely on the heels of this diplomatic discord was the more damaging disclosure by USA of a failed but allegedly Indian Government supported rogue action to kill an American citizen. Both were avowed separatists with a strong anti-India stance. While these incidents are still unravelling, they have the potential to hamper or at least dent Indo-US strategic relations and if proved, will damage India’s diplomatic stock in the eyes of the Western world. On the domestic front the upcoming general elections in the first half of 2024 are likely to be very polarizing and intense. Some degree of violence and conflict in some sensitive constituencies is possible. Elections are also planned for J&K, and would need deft handling as they would be under national and international spotlight. Elections in Pakistan and Bangladesh in 2024 would also have an impact in the region. On the internal security front, the uptick in terrorist attacks in J&K is likely to continue and may increase in the buildup to elections, further exacerbating India-Pakistan relations. Continued unrest in Manipur and Naxal-dominated areas will stretch the security apparatus in 2024. The overall economic outlook is robust, with satisfactory macro-economic indicators. However there is a continued need to tame inflation and create more job opportunities for the young and restive population of the country. Higher adoption of technology, continued digitalization and generative AI are all likely to give a major boost to the economy. The increasing pace of Apple products manufacturing in India, and possible entry of Foxconn, would also be a catalyst to the manufacturing sector. Overall the year 2024 is likely to be stable, but challenging both domestically and on the geopolitical front. Economic growth which is reasonably insulated, will continue to make India the best performing major economy in 2024. The outcome of the watershed general elections would define India’s future for rest of the current decade.” Lt Gen Sudhir Sharma, PVSM, AVSM, YSM, VSM, Chairman, MitKat 2024…

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INDIA RISK SURVEY Report 2022

FICCI and Pinkerton publish the India Risk Survey (IRS) report to identify possible business risks and difficulties prevailing in the Indian business landscape. The survey identifies 12 key areas of concern for businesses and 5 emerging risks that might seriously damage India’s business ecosystem. The results are derived from a survey that involved stakeholders and business executives from various industries. The India Risk Survey Report is frequently seen as a significant predictor of the risks that Indian firms must deal with. Businesses use the report to evaluate their risk exposure and decide how to operate in India. In addition, the media and decision-makers frequently use the survey’s conclusions as proof of the difficulties experienced by Indian entrepreneurs. The India Risk Survey Report gives valuable information about the risks that firms face, like Natural Hazards, Information & Cyber Insecurity, Intellectual Property Theft, Fire, and Crimes, and enables them to make defensible choices regarding their operations. Surpassing the risk of Natural Hazards and pandemics, the risk focus has drastically shifted to Intellectual Property Theft and Information & Cyber Insecurity due to the increasing interconnectivity of businesses’ reliance on technology, and the vast amounts of data that are now stored electronically. Offices have been replaced by hybrid working arrangements, and growing digitization has accelerated the threat. Cases of industrial accidents along with road accidents have been rising as they occur suddenly and without warning, often causing extensive damage to property and equipment. They can also lead to injuries or even fatalities, leading to both reputational and revenue damage for the business. While business espionage is not a new phenomenon, but it has become more prevalent in recent years as the world of business has become more globalized. Companies are now operating on a much larger playing field and there is more at stake. The goal of this survey is to identify potential risks in the context of a changing global environment, allowing business leaders to assess their circumspection for disruptive events like rapid digitalization, accidents, and business espionage, in the future and to ameliorate risk mitigation techniques. Nonetheless, based on each industry’s risk appetite and current risk mitigation plans, the risks identified and their effects may differ from one to the next. The survey’s outcome should help organizations create a 360-degree risk management strategy that will allow them to foresee and prepare for any eventuality, limit interruption, and protect against any risks in advance. Rohit Karnatak Vice President – India APAC & EMEA Global Screening, Pinkerton The India Risk Survey has successfully reached its 10th year milestone, and I feel very proud to say that this survey report has helped many organizations (both private and public sector) in identifying, safeguarding themselves from the potential or prevailing risks in this dynamic business environment and also helps them to create a strategy for their risk governance.Over the years as we introduced the Pinkerton Risk Wheel which has now matured to a more comprehensive risk governance. Risk governance involves how effectively organizations are managing risks by establishing policies, procedures, and frameworks so that the business operates in a responsible and sustainable manner. Effective risk governance is when it is implemented at the planning and strategic level of the decision-making process in an organization. To make it more effective, one should engage with subject matter experts or consulting firms who have expertise in the risk advisory domain. This year’s risk survey has outlined the top 3 risks which are Intellectual Property Theft, Information & Cyber Insecurity, and Accidents ranked in that order. The industry leaders ranked Intellectual Property (IP) Theft as the risk which is the most prevalent threat to their business. Until 2019, IP Theft was not a part of the top 5 risks, but from 2021 it started to emerge among the top 3 risks and finally making to the number one risk this year. When we delved deeper, we could understand that the Indian businesses are understanding the processes, innovations and techniques too are valuable to a business and thus needs to be adequately protected. In the initial years of the report, most businesses only identified counterfeiting of products or violation of trademarks as an IP risk. The manufacturing of a product or the process of a service both are like soft power and need protection as much as the counterfeit product/service that may have been introduced in the market. Pinkerton globally have been focusing on this risk and have been helping organizations make strategies to protect these Intellectual Properties via with the help of Pinkerton’s Global Investigation Services with a dedicated service line of Intellectual Property Protection Service. India Risk Survey 2022 also highlights the top 5 emerging risks which have been prevailing in this past year of 2022 and posed a threat to businesses. The most prevalent emerging risk was the ‘Safety and Security of Key Personnel,’ This risk has emerged at the top because of the threats present for the C-Suites and Directors both internally as well as externally of their business premises. The need for a safe work environment along with the safety & security required during the executive’s business travels has increased manifolds in recent times and therefore, organizations are opting for Executive Protection Services to protect their key personnel from these threats. If an organization keeps risk governance at the center when planning their risk strategies and looks beyond the realm of just compliance, it will help the organization to have an effective, comprehensive risk mitigation covering all four quadrants of risk. We hope that the report will add value to your organization’s risk governance strategy. SUMMARY Each year, the India Risk Survey (IRS) gathers 12 risks that, in the opinion of business enterprises and subject-matter experts, represent the most significant threats that might disrupt Indian business operations. To comprehend and evaluate each risk independently and to conduct analysis, the survey employs the Pinkerton Risk Wheel structure. The Pinkerton Risk Wheel has four different risk categories. Based on the type of threats, the risks are classified. Each…

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2021 State of Operational Technology and Cybersecurity Report

Rajesh Maurya Regional Vice President, India & SAARC, Fortinet The 2021 State of Operational Technology and Cybersecurity Report from Fortinet finds that operational technology (OT) leaders continue to face cybersecurity challenges, some of which were exacerbated by the shift to work from home due to the pandemic. The pandemic also accelerated IT-OT network convergence for most organizations, which correlates to other CEO reports that indicate that pandemic-related changes have accelerated digital transformation, putting organizations years ahead of where they would have expected to be at this point. Many organizations had to increase their technology budgets to accommodate the move to remote work. And as a result of the many changes brought about by the pandemic, many OT leaders are looking for new ways to streamline processes and reduce costs. As noted in the 2020 report, the momentum for OT-IT network convergence was already happening pre-pandemic, but the effects of the pandemic accelerated digital transformation and increased the need for connectivity. Employees were required to work from home and OEMs and system integrators were hampered by their inability to travel to service equipment. Getting on-site became much more difficult, so the pandemic clearly increased the need for third-party secure remote access. Overcoming these challenges increased both costs and risks. In 2021, we saw a change in respondents away from manager of manufacturing to more VP and director level. The responsibility for OT is shifting away from VP or Director of network engineering to CISOs and CIOs. Additionally, there were more security operations centers (SOCs) and significantly more network operations centers (NOCs) in place in 2021 than the prior year. As we have in previous years, we also compared the practices of respondents who had seen zero intrusions in the past year with those who had 10 or more intrusions. We again found that ‘top-tier’ OT leaders were significantly more likely to adhere to a number of best practices, including: Leveraging orchestration and automation and using predictive behavior. Tracking and reporting the financial implications of cybersecurity to the business. Reporting compliance with industry regulations and scheduled security assessments. Adhering to cybersecurity best practices helped top-tier OT organizations better withstand the technology changes, threats, and vulnerabilities that occurred during the pandemic. METHODOLOGY FOR THIS STUDY This year’s State of Operational Technology and Cybersecurity Report is based on a survey conducted from February 24 to March 1, 2021. The questions mirrored those asked in similar surveys in 2019 and 2020. Respondents work at companies involved in four industries: manufacturing, energy and utilities, healthcare, and transportation. All are responsible for some aspect of manufacturing or plant operations and occupied job grades ranging from manager to vice president. This study utilizes data from the survey to paint a picture of how operations professionals interact with cybersecurity in their daily work. The analysis looks at this year’s data and compares it with results from prior years and identifies several overarching insights about the state of the industry. We then delve more deeply into the data, identifying best practices more commonly used by ‘top tier’ organizations – those who have experienced 0 intrusions in the past 12 months versus those that have seen more than 10 attacks in the same period. INTRODUCTION The operational technology (OT) market is expected to continue to grow through 2027 at a CAGR of 6.40%, which is no surprise because OT makes it possible for the world’s factories, energy production and transmission facilities, transportation networks, and utilities to function. To boost operational efficiency and profitability, many OT companies have been integrating OT infrastructure such as supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems with IT networks. Competitive pressures are driving an urgency to reduce costs and increase efficiencies in a variety of ways such as: Utilizing digital twins to reduce risks supporting asset performance management (APM). Increasing overall equipment effectiveness (OEE) to drive increased manufacturing yield. Shifting from calendar-based to condition-based maintenance to minimize lost production associated with service outages. Increasing asset availability and reliability. Digitization of paper record-keeping and service reports for service and maintenance activities. These and other digital transformation initiatives have led to innovations requiring new platforms and new ways for people to work than they have in the past. That change in workstyles was exacerbated with the sudden need for employees to work from home. Although the move to remote work is a significant example of digital transformation, the array of systems and processes affected as a business digitally innovates spans all of OT. All the improved agility and efficiency that comes from OT-IT network convergence also comes with increased risks. The diminishing presence of the ‘air gap’ between OT net works and IT systems means the OT infrastructure is subject to all of the threats that IT systems have traditionally faced. Worse, the attack surface for an OT system can comprise Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) devices, which control critical systems that can have potentially dire health and safety consequences if they are breached. A majority of OT leaders report the maturity of their security posture as at least Level 2 access, which means they have established visibility, segmentation, access, and profiling. At Level 2, they have complete role-based access and are working to achieve zero trust by enforcing multi-factor authentication. In fact, 99% of surveyed respondents were above Level 0, which means only 1% have absolutely no visibility or segmentation in place in OT. Although progress is being made, there is room to grow. Most OT organizations are not leveraging orchestration and automation and their security readiness was further taxed by the COVID-19 crisis. OT-IT network convergence coupled with an ever increasing advanced threat landscape and coping with pandemic-related issues made it even more difficult for OT leaders to stay ahead of adversaries. Although following security best practices takes time and money, those organizations that did were better able to withstand the changes brought about by the pandemic. INSIGHTS FOR OT SECURITY As noted, OT leaders continued to struggle with changes related to OT-IT convergence. Additionally, the…

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INDIA RISK REVIEW 2021

The year gone by will for long be remembered as one of the most tumultuous years for the world in living memory. India’s economy was already under considerable strain and was showing early signs of systemic fault lines. The arrival of the pandemic at the beginning of the year and its quick spread exacerbated the already fragile situation, pushing the economy towards a downward spiral and into a recessionary mode. The economic shock and disruption caused by COVID-19 had a more telling and crippling effect on the unorganised daily wage sector and migrant workers, triggering a painful dislocation and social upheaval, causing much anguish and distress in rural India. In comparative terms, despite its dense population and fragile health infrastructure, India had till date managed the pandemic satisfactorily, especially so in respect of its fatality ratio. On the geopolitical front, India had a major spat with China after nearly sixty years. Large, heavily armed forces of both sides are as of now locked in a tense stand-off. Any military miscalculation or foolhardy adventure by either side can quickly snowball into a sharp and escalatory conflagration. An objective strategic assessment would suggest that both sides are on even terms, with perhaps a slight tactical advantage to India, allowing it a stronger negotiating posture. Going forward in the next year, one does not foresee any significant changes in the prevailing ground position. Any scope for de-escalation and disengagement can only happen at the highest political level of both sides. The chances of that happening soon are dim, as there is too much at stake for either side to show weakness. A stalemate in the near term is therefore more likely. India would have to be very alert once the campaigning season restarts in June, and both sides jockey for tactical advantage. One thing is for sure, that the clash had brought India and the USA closer together strategically and militarily. This relationship is likely to endure even under the Biden administration, as containing China by all possible means would continue to be the fundamental plank of US policy in the Indo Pacific. The clash had also given an impetus to the QUAD grouping; and the recent joint naval exercises are a pointer to a seriousness of intent. In the coming year, more developments and growth in QUAD and QUAD plus can be expected. Indo-Australian relations, both military and economic, will see an upward swing as Australia and China appear to be drifting apart. The UK, having left Brexit, will look towards India for increased trade, and economic relations will be on the upswing. Indian economy is coming out of recession and despite all constraints, is likely to be the world’s fastest growing economy with anticipated growth rate of 8 to 8.5% and going on to 9 plus in the ensuing years. Once the pandemic is fully under control and an effective vaccine is deployed, one can expect things to be hopefully normal by the second to third quarter of next year. Agricultural reforms introduced by the Modi Govt have met with much headwind. Even though the farm laws are technically good for the agricultural sector, sadly the government had brought them in a hurry and without building a reasonable consensus or communicating the benefits/ safeguards to the polity effectively. It is hoped that most of the contentious issues will be resolved. This though will involve very astute and benign handling, or else given the current mood it may spiral out of control. Nearly 5 Indian states go for elections in 2021 with West Bengal being the most crucial, followed by Assam and Tamil Nadu. The results of these state elections will be like a midcourse referendum of the current disposition. A change of government in West Bengal would be a tall ask for the BJP but TMC would definitely be weakened and lose its grip on the state. Whatever be the final result, due to the high stakes and passions involved, violence during the run up and during elections is likely and would need monitoring. 2021 will be a very eventful year, especially in terms of economic recovery, and revival of the travel and hospitality sector. Schools are likely to open early next year if the current COVID-19 declining trends continue. Security scenario on the borders both with China and Pakistan will continue to be tense with distinct possibility of clashes resulting in casualties. A full-scale war or even a sectoral conflict is less likely as both sides are unwilling to escalate matters. As we move forward, security professionals are likely to face dynamic and more evolving security threats worldwide. As leaders have been focusing on recovering from the impact of COVID-19, security concerns related to border conflicts with China and Pakistan, situations of civil unrest, technological risks and consequences of climate change will have its impact besides the non-traditional threats in both the physical and cyber realms. OVERALL BUSINESS CLIMATE FOR 2021 For India, 2020 was a year of multiple reckonings. Between COVID-19, the lockdown and the pandemic’s economic consequences, the standoff in Ladakh, caused by the largest Chinese military mobilisation in memory, farmer protests on the outskirts of the national capital, and even cyclones were crowded out of news cycles. In terms of geopolitical developments, regional tensions are expected to continue. Besides violent clashes between India and China at the Galwan Valley and a border dispute with Nepal, complexities persist with Pakistan. While India had managed to maintain its ties with Nepal, relations with China and Pakistan are likely to remain strained in the same manner. Tensions along both borders will remain top priorities for security establishments, with probability of more clashes along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and continued cross border infiltration along the Line of Control (LoC). The impact of the 2020 pandemic in India had been highly disruptive as the country had contributed the second highest number of COVID-19 cases. While the market forecasts have predicted a drop of 18.3 percent, the Indian economy shrank…

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Cisco 2021 Data Privacy Benchmark Study Forged by the Pandemic: The Age of Privacy

The COVID-19 pandemic led to dramatic changes in 2020. At a time of disruption and uncertainty due to the pandemic, people have been suddenly expected, and at times required, to share their personal information such as personal lives, routines, social circles, health status and other data with governments, employers, and also with strangers while learning to interact remotely and in new digital way to help curtail the spread of COVID-19. People have shifted much of their lives online, accelerating a trend that normally would have taken years. These mass-scale shifts in human interaction and digital engagement presented many challenging data privacy issues for organizations who aim to follow the law, stop the spread of the pandemic, while also respecting individual rights. It put strains on privacy as the need to protect individual’s data was often in conflict with the need to protect public health. Consumers and the general public are growing increasingly concerned about how their personal data is being used. Fortunately, privacy protections established over the last decade helped decision makers strike the right balance between individual concerns and community needs. Cisco recently published the 2021 Data Privacy Benchmark Study, its fourth annual look into corporate privacy practices worldwide, which found enhanced importance of privacy protections during the pandemic and increasing benefits for businesses that adopt strong privacy measures. The independent, anonymized survey analyzed the responses of 4,400 security and privacy professionals across 25 countries and explored attitudes towards privacy legislation and the emergence of privacy metrics being reported to executive management. In this year’s Data Privacy Benchmark Study, we’ve found strong evidence that privacy has become an even more important priority during the pandemic. Privacy budgets have increased over the last year, organizations have more resources focused on privacy, and privacy investments going above and beyond the law are translating into real business value. Privacy legislation and external certifications are providing assurance in a business environment where it’s hard to know whom to trust. Consumers are exercising their privacy rights and demanding enforcement of existing privacy protections. The reaffirmation of privacy’s value even during the pandemic positions it as a priority for years to come. Privacy is no longer an afterthought; it is core to how we work and interact with each other. The age of privacy has arrived. KEY FINDINGS In this study, we continue our exploration of privacy practices and maturity levels at organizations around the world, their financial investments in privacy, business benefits from these investments, and the forces driving these behaviors. In this year’s research, we also included several questions related to the pandemic and its impact. Some of the key findings include Ninety-three percent of organizations turned to their privacy teams to help navigate and guide their pandemic response. Privacy budgets doubled in 2020 to an average of $2.4 million. RoI was slightly down compared to 2019, but remains attractive with 35% reporting benefits at least 2 times their investments. Privacy laws are viewed very favorably around the world, with 79% of organizations indicating they are having a positive impact (and only 5% negative impact). External privacy certifications (e.g., ISO 27701, APEC Cross-Border Privacy Rules, and EU Binding Corporate Rules) are an important buying factor for 90% of organizations when choosing a product or vendor. Organizations with more mature privacy practices are getting higher business benefits than average and are much better equipped to handle new and evolving privacy regulations around the world. Data privacy has become a top area of responsibility for security professionals, with 34% of survey respondents indicating privacy is one of their core competencies and responsibilities. Ninety-three percent of organizations are reporting privacy metrics (e.g., privacy program audit findings, privacy impact assessments, and data breaches) to their Boards. These findings provide strong evidence that the commitment to privacy has been strengthened during the pandemic. Organizations that get privacy right improve trust with their customers, operational efficiency, and both top-line and bottom-line results. FORGED BY THE PANDEMIC: THE AGE OF PRIVACY 1. Helping organizations overcome the challenges of the pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic forced many changes on society in 2020, including a rapid shift to remote working and an often-urgent need for personal health information to support public health initiatives. Rather than being pushed aside, privacy teams and privacy principles have attained greater prominence as they have helped organizations manage this shift and balance the competing interests of individual rights and public safety. Ninety-three percent of organizations said their privacy teams played a significant role in helping them navigate and respond to the challenges brought on by COVID-19. These challenges included the shift to remote working, determining when and how to share personal information, and implementing controls to limit access and use of any shared personal data. During the pandemic, the percentage of organizations where most employees were working remotely jumped from 40% to 67%, and 91% of organizations had at least a quarter of their employees working remotely. Unfortunately, many were unprepared for this transition. Only 41% of organizations described themselves as fully prepared for this shift from a privacy and security perspective, and 87% of individuals expressed concern with the privacy protections involved in the tools they needed to work and interact remotely (See figure 1). In responding to the pandemic, governments and organizations needed health-related personal data to understand co-morbidity factors and exposure risk to keep their communities and workplaces safe. Despite the need, consumers generally supported few if any exceptions to the privacy protections for their data. Thirty-six percent of respondents in the consumer survey wanted no change to existing privacy laws, with another 26% supporting only limited exceptions. Only 10% thought privacy should take a back seat to safety during the pandemic (See figure 2). In considering specific use cases, 57% were supportive of employers’ need for health information to keep their workplaces safe, but most other use cases were only supported by a minority of respondents. These included location tracking, contact tracing, relaxing medical restrictions, disclosing information about infected individuals, and using individual…

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COVID-19 CONTACT TRACING APPS

(Submitted by Overseas Security Advisory Council) Digital contact-tracing mobile applications have become a useful mitigation tool for countries and private-sector organizations alike in the fight against COVID-19. South Korea and Singapore were among the first to deploy a digital version of contact tracing, a key reason those countries have experienced relatively few coronavirus cases. In the United States, such measures have fallen largely to tech companies, resulting in a rare partnership between Apple and Google to develop contact-tracing technology that will operate on both iOS and Android phones. However, other countries have implemented apps that raise serious security concerns for private sector operators. This report looks at the issue as a whole, and examines its implications in two key countries for OSAC members. Using Contact Tracing Applications While governments and major companies work to create and monitor tracing apps, private sector organizations have also begun acquiring mobile applications and wearable devices to track and stop the spread of coronavirus in the workplace. PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), which is building its own contact tracing app, noted that nearly a quarter of chief financial officers they surveyed plan to evaluate the technology as part of an office reopening strategy. A recent survey of 300 OSAC members received similar results; 22% of respondents noted that their organization was considering the use of contact tracing mobile applications to identify and track possible COVID-19 infections, with another 3% reporting that their organization was already using these applications. These responses were highest in Asia, where almost 30% of respondents reported either considering or currently using contact tracing mobile applications. As organizations consider mandating these technologies in the workplace, many questions arise such as whether participation actually makes employees safer (or just feel so), if apps are legal and appropriate to deploy and mandate for employees, and if the technology will work as advertised in the field. The legality and appropriateness of mandated digital contact tracing in the workplace is likely to differ by country and organization. Also, organizations may need more time and experience to fully understand how well the technology will work, and how it will impact employee safety. Regardless, the mandated use of these technologies present cybersecurity and privacy concerns that can and should be examined before considering or committing to any new platform. GPS vs Bluetooth The two primary forms of digital contact tracing mobile applications are those that rely on GPS and those that use Bluetooth. GPS-based apps, such as those in South Korea and Israel, are the most intrusive on privacy, since they track and communicate user locations and movements to a centralized source (like the government). They can pinpoint potential locations of exposure, as well as the phones of the users who appear to have been in close contact with an individual. Meanwhile, those that rely on Bluetooth technology, like the apps in Singapore and Australia, can tell you when you might have been exposed to COVID-19, but they are more decentralized and will not tell a user where or to whom they were exposed. Privacy advocates prefer the latter for these reasons. Some legal experts argue that the optimal design for private-sector organizations from a privacy point of view leverages Bluetooth technology without giving the employer access to the server containing the information. Companies Behind the Apps In addition to understanding the technical backbone on which these applications rest, organizations should also consider the developers and their track records with cybersecurity and privacy issues. There is a wide variety of companies seeking to develop this technology and earn their share of what may prove to be a lucrative market moving forward. These include all types of organizations, from traditional business software and professional services companies like PwC and Salesforce, to technology startups and cyber intelligence firms. According to Reuters, at least eight surveillance and cyber-intelligence companies are attempting to sell re-purposed spy and law enforcement tools to track COVID-19 and enforce quarantines. Executives at four of those companies said they are piloting or in the process of installing products to counter coronavirus in more than a dozen countries in Latin America, Europe, and Asia. One of the more controversial companies in this group is the Israel-based cyber intelligence firm, NSO Group. The surveillance software-developer is currently being sued by WhatsApp for allegedly helping governments hack 1,400 targets, to include activists, journalists, diplomats, and state officials using its signature software, Pegasus. The company also faces another lawsuit in which it is accused of supplying software to the Saudi Arabian government, which allegedly used it to spy on the journalist Jamal Khashoggi before his murder. While these platforms, which largely rely on GPS location data, have primarily marketed to governments, organizations interested in employing digital contact tracing tools within their facilities and workforce should also be wary of clandestine technologies traditionally used for surveillance. Beyond the damage that such technologies could cause to an organization’s business image or employee trust, they could also present significant data privacy concerns, depending on how the data is collected, stored, and accessed. Organizations should also monitor which countries are adopting these more privacy-invasive technologies, as countries more predisposed to dissent suppression and other digital authoritarian practices could easily abuse then. Two Significant Case Studies OSAC has received inquiries from the private sector regarding digital contact tracing apps that host governments are mandating for employees. According to MIT Technology Review’ COVID-19 Tracing Tracker, 25 countries currently have significant automated contact tracing efforts in place, and five of those countries (Bahrain, China, India, Qatar and Turkey) mandate use of tool . Two case studies address how mandated use might impact U.S. private-sector employees operating in the world’s two most populous countries. China Color-Coded Health Passes China has rolled out a color-coded health system based on travel history and contact tracing to monitor new COVID outbreaks. While downloading the app is not mandatory, the health code is necessary to enter public places such as public transportation, residential compounds, hospitals, workplaces, or schools, or to travel domestically. If an individual…

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South Asia Risk Review 2020

2019 for South Asia has been one of the most eventful years in the past decade. 2019 witnessed the first trans-line of control air attacks between India and Pakistan after almost five decades, and one of the worst terrorist attacks in about a decade in Sri Lanka on Easter Sunday. Jamaat-ul Mujahideen Bangladesh is hailed by experts as one of the most advanced, criminal minded and crafty terrorist organization in the sub-continent. The Taliban revived itself as a major player in Afghanistan for the first time since their removal from power in 2001. On the political front, India saw major political and constitutional reforms, while Sri Lanka and Maldives have seen new governments. Pakistan continues to grapple with uniformed democracy in new ways. Nepal’s growing closeness with China, seen alongside China’s increasing role in Sri Lanka and Pakistan too has India worried. On the economic front, South Asia too saw a big flux in 2019. While the economy of Pakistan has come to a historical low, India and Nepal have revived their economies ten years after the global economic crisis to become some of the fastest growing economies. Bangladesh continues to remain one of the fastest growing economies in the region with its GDP growth rate forecast at 8% in 2020. South Asia remains the region with one of the highest growth rates, and one of the largest markets with youngest work force. Against this backdrop of geopolitical and economic challenges coupled with massive opportunities in market growth and capitalization focus, it becomes important to carefully evaluate the risks of doing business in South Asia. MitKat’s South Asia Risk Review 2020 brings to you an indepth geo-political analysis of the major issues affecting each country in the region, the influence of external powers in domestic markets and political space, as well as a forecast for the coming year based on trend development and analysis. Lt Gen Sudhir Sharma  PVSM, AVSM, YSM, VSM (Retd), Chairman “Geopolitical and geo-economic turbulence, endemic in the South Asian region, continued in 2019 and is likely to manifest in the similar vein in 2020. Certain important events of this year are likely to cast their shadow on the strategic dynamics, and the inherent fissures and fault lines in the ensuing year will exacerbate further. The 2019 parliamentary elections in India though offered continuity on one hand, on the other however, the loud and vitriolic campaign polarised the fractured polity even more. The election of Mr Modi and the revocation of Article 370 in Kashmir and realignment of state boundaries evoked a shrill response from Pakistan and some other nations. Earlier India had raised the stakes in a high gamble air strike on terror targets in Balakot, Pakistan in Feb 2019; and changed forever the status quo of the fragile LoC between the two countries. The China-Pakistan nexus got further strengthened, and this axis is likely to dominate the geopolitical discourse of the region. The tentative ‘quad’ grouping to counterbalance China and the BRI would further strain the insecurities of the dominant players.” NEW RISKS FOR A NEW DECADE As we enter a new decade, the world at large finds itself at a societal, economic and environmental tipping point. Growth in manufacturing economies is slowing down, economic inequalities are on the rise, and climate change is taking place at a faster pace than before. Simultaneously we also see an increase in radicalized movements, particularly against immigrants and minorities. There is also a growing disbelief in the capitalist system, and a backlash against the pace of technological developments and dwindling number of elites that control an even larger share of the global market. These trends get mirrored in South Asia. These geo-political and geo-economic trends put governments in South Asia in a bind, with increasing pressure to find new ways to deal with the new risks as they are emerging, or risk losing business with the companies holding back investments and changing supply chains to avoid certain countries. We therefore see five persistent risks for 2020 in South Asia: Civil disturbance/ activism Protests, riots, and violent activism across the countries are expected to pose one of the most important risks to business continuity in South Asia. As civil dissonance grows, and avenues for protest under the democratic system increase, civil disturbances can be expected to remain one of the most persistent risks for 2020. Terrorism and extremism Each country of the region faces persistent threats from increasing radicalized groups and individuals, many of whom join various terrorist and extremist groups spread across South Asia. Disruptions to business operations from terrorist threats would continue to remain high in 2020. Technology Technological risks would encompass the constant new innovations that outpace each other, rendering slow adoption of any technology into business – a more futile and expensive exercise. The integration of new and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, machine learning and big data development and management, if not managed properly would expose businesses to various compliance and financial risks. Economic flux Geo-economics, and in particular the effect of shifting political strategy towards short-term economic goals would see multiple countries in South Asia facing an economic flux. This can be expected to manifest in the form of shifting economic policies, vulnerabilities in market transactions, and changes in repo rate and currency rates based on political decisions. Environmental risk Fast-paced climate change with resultant extreme weather phenomenon, as well as shifting environmental regulations imposed by governments due to political pressure from activists, international platforms, as well as genuine concerns can lead to business disruptions. INTERCONNECTED, INTERDEPENDENT , & YET UNDER EXTERNAL INFLUENCE As we move ahead with the high levels of globalization achieved in the past two decades, it is unlikely that South Asia would be able to focus on these risks without any influence from the larger global trends – or that it even should. While acknowledging the influence that all countries and international developments have on governance, politics and economy of a country, or a subcontinent, South Asia is more influenced by the trends and power overshadow of two of the three major power centers of the…

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INDIA RISK SURVEY 2019

Indian policies continue to make foreign investments in India more attractive to make economic growth robust. Policy drive in the Centre is to make India a USD5 trillion economy by 2024. The policy also aims to continue making ease of doing business more attractive with competitive and fair business practices by further digitizing the economy, and improving infrastructure, logistics and networks to promote manufacturing activities. While the Government of India and other agencies are in attempt to make operations smooth and glitches-free, the key challenges for these agencies would be to manage existing risks, identify emerging threats, and design a framework to have an action plan in place when continuity becomes a casualty. This study aims to allow businesses to develop a 360-degree risk management strategy to assist companies in preparing against any contingency, that will help companies mitigate disruption and hedge against any concerns pre-emptively. This survey uses Pinkerton Risk Wheel framework to understand and assess each risk individually and also to look at them for a holistic analyses. There are four risk categories in the Pinkerton Risk Wheel – based on the nature of threats. Some of these risks listed under each category are interconnected to each quadrant. The four quadrants in the risk wheel are – Hazard & Event Risk (natural hazards, crime, terrorism & insurgency, and fire), Operational and Physical Risk (strikes, closures & unrest, threats to women safety and accidents), Market and Economic Risk (corruption, bribery & corporate fraud, and political and governance instability), and Technology and Information Risk (business espionage, information and cyber insecurity, and intellectual property theft). INDIA RISKS India Risk Survey 2019 identifies the most significant threat types within each risk for mitigation and holistic management. The threats highlighted in this study are interconnected and overlap across domains, sectors and geographies. Corruption, Bribery & Corporate Fraud Corruption, Bribery & Fraud climbs up in the risk chart to the top position in the India Risk Survey 2019. It includes bribery/ kickback, conflict of interest, shell companies, business identity theft, and others. Among these, bribery/ kickback has emerged as the biggest threat. A series of high-profile fraud cases have been reported affecting the banking sector in the past two years. While the Government has initiated a series of crackdowns on corrupt officials and shell companies and made regulatory changes, India has not significantly improved its position in the Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index in the past three years. Natural Hazards Natural Hazards remains at the second most significant risk to business operations for two successive years. In 2019, floods continued to disrupt business operations and hence remained a potent threat under this risk category. Persistent improvement in early warning systems and preparation to deal with natural hazards would be required. During natural calamities, business operations also get affected due to inadequate infrastructure and maintenance by concerned bodies. “Businesses operate in a complex environment wherein the nature of risks is ever changing. India’s business environment is also transitioning through regulatory changes, adoption of new business practices, and evolution of technologies at a rapid pace. All these changes are aimed at making India an attractive business ecosystem and investment destination. This also calls for quick action and collaboration between both public as well as private sector to help protect businesses against the identified risks. India Risk Survey attempts to assess business threats and aims to serve as a useful guide for policy makers and business leaders to mitigate these identified risks. Pinkerton adopts a comprehensive risk management approach, relying on data and new tools like Artificial Intelligence and so, to anticipate risks and gauge their impacts before recommending mitigation measures. The purpose of the report is to engage with all stakeholders including policy makers and business leaders to connect and collaborate in anticipating risks and mitigating them in a timely manner” -Rohit Karnatak Managing Director – India APAC & EMEA – Global Screening, Pinkerton Crime Crime risk category moves up in rankings to the third most eminent risk. Offences against public tranquility have emerged as the topmost threat to the private and public sectors under this risk category. White collar crime also poses a direct threat to companies’ finances and brand reputation. Political & Governance Instability Political & Governance Instability ranks fourth in the India Risk Survey 2019. The survey finds that policy changes are perceived as a threat under this risk category. Following the general elections in 2019, the Government at the centre with a strong mandate, is expected to continue with market reforms, and changes in regulations is on the cards. Businesses can expect reforms and change in rules in the near to medium term, which could impact the business ecosystem and particular sectors of the economy. “During 2019, India’s macroeconomic risks moved into sharper focus. Financial market volatility increased and the headwinds facing Indian economy intensified. Though the growth of Indian economy moderated in 2018-19 with a growth of 6.8 % – slightly lower than 7.2 % in 2017-18, yet India continued to be one of the fastest growing economies in the world. To achieve the objective of becoming a USD 5 trillion economy by 2024-25, as laid down by the Prime Minister, India needs to sustain a real GDP growth rate of 8%. At the same time, Indian businesses are facing a growing number of complex and interconnected challenges – from slowing growth and persistent economic inequality to non-financial risks such as climate change, geopolitical tensions and the accelerating pace of the fourth industrial revolution. This report aims to measure and quantify the different risks that businesses face when conducting operations in India. It is not just producing a risk ranking, but more interestingly, analyzing the changing perception of industry with shift in macro and micro economic factors and government policies” – Rahul Chaudhry Chair- FICCI Committee on Homeland Security Terrorism and Insurgency Risks emanating from Terrorism and Insurgency show a significant drop to the fifth position in the Indian Risk Survey 2019. This highlights a reduction in terror and Left…

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INDIA RISK SURVEY 2018

India continues to position itself as an attractive hub for investments from foreign players with an expanding economy and a steady gross domestic product (GDP) growing annually at 7.1%. International forums have indicated that the ease of doing business in India has improved significantly. Pro-investor policies have been implanted by the government to further bolster India’s position in the international market. Through several flagship programmes, the government is striving to promote manufacturing activity locally. Foreign investment and IT-powered infrastructure continue to be developed to further enable support for logistically robust and multi-nodal networks. Emerging possibilities of growth implies risks across all sectors. Companies should expect an array of challenges in business operations in India. A lack of preparation against risk mitigation could result in financial and operational functions. The Government of India continues to make attempts at ensuring that bilateral and multilateral relations remain friendly for businesses to conduct operations. As India prepares itself, as a nation, for another round of general elections in 2019, there has emerged a certain amount of uncertainty regarding business policies and existing schemes. With the upcoming elections in 2019, it is likely that policy change may affect business continuity. A holistic risk-management strategy would assist businesses to anticipate and prepare against emerging and existing risks, thereby, allowing a company to mitigate such risks. The India Risk Survey consists of 12 risks that indicate the most significant threats to business operations and development in India. Each risk is assessed individually, which provides a deeper and more holistic understanding, based on the Pinkerton Risk Wheel. The Pinkerton Risk Wheel frames risk into four broad categories which can help understand not only the different threats that can impact business continuity, but the inter connectivity of risks as a whole. Threats categorized in one risk area ultimately can impact the other risk areas. The risks wheel is divided into four quadrants – Hazard & Event Risk (natural hazards, terrorism & insurgency, crime and fire), Operational and Physical Risk (strikes and unrest, threats to women safety, accidents and infrastructure risk), Market and Economic Risk (political and government instability, corruption, bribery, fraud, and legal regulatory risk), and Technology and Information Risk (information and cyber insecurity, intellectual property theft and business espionage). The India Risk Survey (IRS) aims to measure and quantify the different risks that organizations face when conducting operations in India. The constantly evolving nature of risks compels organizations to safeguard their operations and develop innovative strategies to predict threats. In this seventh edition, IRS 2018 aims to delve deeper into all facets of risks to identify the most prevalent threats under each risk category. Through deliberations with policy makers and industry stakeholders across sectors, each year emerging risks are also identified. The IRS 2018 states infrastructure risks, occupational hazards at workplace and legal regulatory risk as the emerging risks of 2018. In today’s time, policy makers and business leaders can truly fulfil their role by timely anticipating risks. On behalf of Pinkerton, I sincerely hope that the India Risk Survey 2018 report will assist the industry, as well as the government decision makers to assess the impact of these risks and develop preventive strategies to mitigate them. – Rohit Karnatak, Managing Director India, APAC & EMEA – Global Screening, Pinkerton Overall Risk Trends – 2018 India Risk Survey 2018 also provides the most significant threat types within each risk for a comprehensive reading of each threat-vector as part of a larger reality. The threats are interconnected and overlap across domains, sectors and geographies. In the 2018 edition, new risks have been identified on the basis of this year’s survey, which include infrastructure risk, occupational hazards at workplace, and legal regulatory risks. Information and Cyber Insecurity remains at the top position in the India Risk Survey 2018. Considering the importance of cyber critical infrastructure, the vulnerabilities attached to it remain largely underlined in the Survey. Services in India are quickly moving towards digitization. While this could be perceived as a step towards rapid development in various sectors, it also presents risks in which malicious activity can be easily carried out, posing a significant threat to sensitive data. The India Risk Survey 2018 focuses on four major risks posed by Information and Cyber Insecurity. These are data theft, compliance and regulatory incidents, cyber infrastructure attacks, and impersonations. Amongst these, data theft, phishing, and hacktivism emerged as the biggest threat. With India becoming a key destination for businesses and foreign investment, a more serious focus should be directed to create a robust security mechanism to address these challenges. Natural Hazards ranks as the second biggest risk to business operations in the India Risk Survey 2018. As per the findings, floods pose the biggest threat to business operations. Inadequate infrastructure and maintenance by concerned bodies remain a primary factor that would allow natural hazards to pose serious risks to business operations. Further, a lack of preparedness and early warning systems has contributed to making Natural Hazards a risk that should be considered with more seriousness. Outbreak of fire ranks at third position with numerous fire accidents in the current year, causing significant loss of life and property. Non-compliance with safety norms in factories and high-rises in addition to the under-equipped fire services in India has led to an alarming number of accidents year-on-year. While the government and other regulatory bodies have prescribed norms and fire safety measures, implementation and vigilance continue to be a concern. Risks that emanate from Terrorism and Insurgency show a significant drop to the fourth position. While there has been a marked decrease in fatalities, it has been found that there has also been a rise in the number of alleged terrorist attacks in the country. Left-Wing Extremism (LWE) remains a severe threat, posing security risks mainly to logistical operations. While the Islamic State (IS) has been relatively controlled on a global scale, the potential of IS sleeper cells remains a big threat. The Government of India continues to push concentrated efforts to holistically counter the threats…

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Private Security Industry Job Creation and Skill Development

The demand for security services is increasing due to rising urbanisation, the real and perceived risks of crime and terrorism, belief that public safety measures are insufficient, and the growth of a middle class with assets to protect and means to pay for supplementary security measures. The security service market is also supported by an improved economic environment and building construction activity. The private security sector has emerged as a major industry by virtue of the employment of large manpower, both skilled and unskilled, to meet the burgeoning demands of the corporate sector. With national security assuming greater criticality and lower police to people ratio in the country, private security industry can act as extended arms of the law enforcement agencies. This will help relieve police forces from non-critical duties to focus on core areas. With the anticipated growth of the industry, the employment opportunities are tremendous. Since, majority of the workforce employed is in the unorganized sector, the potential for skilling is evident. Current time requires private security personnel to multitask and use technology to perform security, safety and facilitation functions. Skill development, especially Recognition of Prior Learning (RPL), reskilling and upskilling are key issues, and therefore, investment in human capital is vital in preparing this industry to take on greater responsibilities. The regulatory framework governing this industry also needs proper enforcement. Unorganized segment has largely remained unchecked and players usually skip adhering to mandatory compliance requirements, which creates a detrimental impact for all stakeholders including employees and clients. It is imperative for the governments to ensure strict enforcement of the regulations that will improve service delivery quality levels as well as work environment for the security personnel. – DILIP CHENOY Secretary General, FICCI The Indian personal security market was estimated at INR 57,000 crore (USD 8.8 billion) in 2016 and is likely to touch INR 99,000 crore (USD 15.2 billion) by 2020, and INR 1.5 lakh crores (USD 23.1 billion) by 2022. Apart from revenue growth, the private security industry (PSI) is also evolving in its employment practices. Leading industry players are setting new standards by focusing on training and skill development of their people and customer satisfaction, establishing employee. welfare funds, ensuring timely payment of salaries, and defining career progression paths for high-performing employees. The Indian economy, as per the latest World Bank figures, is now the world’s 6th largest economy, and is expected to grow at 7.4% in 2018 and 7.8% in 2019. With the economy and businesses growing, security needs are also expanding, which is further necessitated by the ever-increasing security risks and related threat perceptions. Deployment of specialised personnel and systems to prevent and manage security risks and threats including accidents and incidents are vital for peaceful operations at a place. Therefore, the need for implementing security measures and systems at public places such as airports, railways and metro stations, shopping malls and markets, hotels and public utilities, as well as industrial complexes, commercial spaces, offices and residential blocks has risen multi-fold. Indian Private Security Industry (PSI) has also expanded at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 20% over the last decade by adding new players in the field as well as scaling their operational capabilities. In fact, private security in India is the 2nd largest sector, after agriculture, in terms of employment, with close to 9 million employees. Traditionally, it has been an unorganised sector with only around 40% of the market share with the organised players. However, the industry is progressing towards being organised as the consumer demand for security is gradually evolving from a mere guard to a professional and skilled guard, trained for movement of men and material, fire incidents, medical exigencies etc. Further, technology is progressively playing an ever-increasing role in the valueaddedd services being offered by the industry that include artificial intelligence, internet of things, hi-tech surveillance systems, biometric technologies, remote sensors, cyber security etc. – CDR GAUTAM NANDA Leader – Aerospace, Defence & Security Associate Partner – Government Advisory, BDO India LLP The private security industry is amongst the largest employers in India, employing almost 8.9 million people, with the potential to employ 3.1 million more by 2022. The PSI also has a unique distinction of being the largest corporate tax contributor to the national exchequer. As per a study by The Guardian, the global market in the year 2017 was USD 180 billion and is expected to be worth USD 240 billion by 2020. In contrast, the Indian private security industry (PSI) is expected to grow faster at about 20% CAGR owing to the changing landscape of the sector in India. However, there remains a shortfall of manpower of about 30% with a potential to generate a number of jobs for the rural and urban poor. Workforce size of PSI is more than the combined strength of the Army, Navy, Air force and Police put together. With 8.9 million security guards and 1.9 million police officers, India has 5 times as many private security guards than police officers. The sanctioned strength of police personnel (civil and armed) in 2016 was just 2,464,484, which the employment in the PSI far exceeds. The following table shows data derived from Forbes and Statista estimates, depicting the ratio of personnel employed in private security to that in police force in selected countries. The figures show that India whilst topping the list, far exceeds other countries in terms of the divide between personnel employed in PSI and police force. Clearly, there is a vast potential for the large workforce in PSI to provide allied police services along with the law enforcement agencies to fill up the current gap. However, it would require an appropriate policy framework. Some of the allied police services which are globally outsourced to private security are: Security of the outer periphery of prisons and transportation of prisoners. Senior citizen preventive security services. Street surveillance and video control room management. Assist police in handling emergencies and disasters. Background verification of employment applicants. Security management for…

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